The Real Reasons For Republican Defeats in 2012

So the 2012 presidential election is history and it didn't turn out well for conservatives or Republicans. For the disappointed, it is crucial to draw the correct lessons from this defeat in order to come roaring back in the midterm elections of 2014. Mitt Romney did not lose because he was too liberal or too conservative. Michelle Bachmann and Newt Gingrich could not have won either. Back in the primaries, Rick Santorum stepped in every social issue-trap the media laid out for him. He would have been a crispy critter going up against Barack Obama.

On the flip-side, a more liberal Republican would not have stood a better chance. Suppose you had a liberal Republican on the debate stage with Barack Obama. Do you really think a liberal Democrat or a liberal-leaning independent voter is going to vote for a watered-down liberal Republican when they can get the real thing by voting for Barack Obama?

If Republicans think the way to win in 2014 and 2016 is to roll out the most conservative candidates they can possibly find, they will lose in a landslide of Goldwater proportions. Ronald Reagan was a great candidate not because he was more conservative than everyone else, but because he only talked about the most pressing issues everyone cared about: inflation, job growth, military preparedness, lower taxes, and greater pride in the spirit of patriotism that made this country great to begin with. Reagan had a winning smile and was quick with a story and a joke. Reagan avoided speaking on the most controversial issues. Santorum, Akin, and Mourdock lost because they could not control their tongues.

This does not suggest conservatives should compromise their values and become Democrats in order to win elections. But conservatives do not need to blab all day long about every single issue that is important to them, in the name of outspoken-ness. Abraham Lincoln's law partner, William Herndon, claimed Lincoln's winning virtue was that he knew when to keep his mouth shut.

In the 2012 election, the most readily offered answer from the demographics of the popular vote was Republicans did poorly among every group in society except for white men and married, white women. Nonetheless, it would be a mistake to think conservatism is unattractive to minorities and the young. George W. Bush did quite well with Hispanics in both his elections and, let's not forget, joblessness stares the college youths in the face.

The Romney campaign largely ignored the Hispanic community. Romney said little about them other than his pledge to crack down on illegal immigration - not a winning issue with that demographic. He made some soft comments about the Republican party being the "natural home" of Hispanics in light of their conservative stances on religious issues and family, as well as the value of hard work. But slogans are no substitute for outreach. By contrast, the Democrats did huge, systemic, get out-the-vote drives were able to define Romney negatively for minority voters.

Time was never on Romney's side. After a grueling primary campaign, he had scarcely more than six months to build his ground game. Obama had been building his for five years or more. In fact, since 2010 the president has done little more than campaign. He is the chronic campaigner. This gets to the heart of why Romney lost. It wasn't conservative values that did him in. The fact that looms larger than everything else is a simple truism - it is hard to defeat an incumbent president. Romney stood a chance, but it was a long shot.

In the more than two hundred years this country has had presidents, only nine presidents who sought re-election were defeated. Nine presidents in two hundred years. Think about it. Of those nine, eight were defeated because of primary challenges from their own party. Jimmy Carter was defeated as much by Ted Kennedy as from Reagan. George H.W. Bush faced a primary challenge from Pat Buchanan and then had to run against Ross Perot (a strong, independent conservative) and Bill Clinton, at the same time.

So what do conservatives do now, abandon conservatism? Hardly. Let's not forget the groundswell victories conservatives won against Obamism in 2010. Republicans captured solid control of the House of Representatives, and they'll keep that majority following the latest election. How could that have happened in two consecutive elections if conservative values were out of fashion?  The truth is, there are plenty of people out there who understand fully well that only conservative solutions work against the biggest challenges our country faces: debt, inflation, joblessness, taxation, entitlements, and military preparedness. 

Republicans assumed Obama's failures spoke for themselves and that the public was ready to throw him out. Unfortunately for the GOP: facts, values, and good debates are not as effective as building a ground game. knocking on doors, shaking hands with people, listening to their concerns, and getting them to vote is the work that lay ahead if conservatives want to make a comeback. They can do it, because the solutions are on their side.

Democrats are not just unwilling, they are unable to provide solutions to the nation's problems because they are elected by constituencies who are demanding more and more of the services that exacerbate these problems. Democrats do not even pretend to care about these issues. The day after the election, when asked by a reporter if the debt ceiling will need to be raised another $3 trillion by the spring, Senate ruler Harry Reid, said "Sure. If it needs to be raised, we'll raise it." If Reid gets his way the national debt will soon be $19 trillion. Only conservatism can turn this country away from the debt bomb that stares us in the face. Sooner or later, more than 50% of the public will cry out for real leadership on this menace.

For now, conservatives, feel good about who you are. Get back on your feet, dust off your shoulders, and keep fighting. The country needs you. You may lose elections from time to time, but you are never defeated unless you quit. 

Patriot Thought